On Vacation

I am on vacation for a bit.

When I get back, I will post on a regular basis with POLICY, now that the legislature is coming back in January.

Have a great thanksgiving.

Final Election Thoughts

OK, last crack at this....even MORE elections thoughts.

* If Scott Walker had been the nominee, how would the election have been different? Walker is a far better candidate, has a Milwaukee base potentially eating into the Democrats base, and the illegal money transfer would not have been an issue. But then again, the Milwaukee County financials woes would have come into play.... I have to wonder though. I always thought Walker is a formidible candidate for any office.

* Dawn Marie Sass is the new State Treasurer. It really was a Democratic year. You think even a hundred people met her on the campaign trail? (Jack, best wishes. You are a class act.)

* What if all the outside groups had put even ten percent of their effort into Assembly races for the Democrats? Doyle would have both houses to govern with....hmmmmm.

* Does John Gard become a lobbyist in Madison or a Bush appointee in Washington? Or does he just wash cars in Peshtigo? Bets?

* I have estimated there are about 40-45 new jobs for Democrats at the State Capitol, with the Senate going Democratic and more Assembly Democrats elected. Look for lobbyists to hire more Democrats as well. Democratic Governor, Democratic State Senate, Evenly Divided Joint Finance Committee, Close Margin in the Assembly - I don't think Foti is "golden". Add to that hundreds of jobs in DC for Dems as well. Looks like good news for Democratic activists.

* Who pays for the dismal GOP election performance? Rep. Mike Huebsch? Rep. Mark Gundrum (author of the marriage amendment, which turned out Democratic voters)? Rep. John Gard? Sen. Dale Schultz? The State GOP? What do YOU think?

Final question: Who was the biggest winner of the state 2006 elections?

More Election Observations

My random thoughts about yesterday's elections.

Positives

Governor Doyle won decisively. He beat both Wisconsin Manufacturers and Commerce and the Wisconsin REALTORS Association, who spent heavily against him. WMC even played coy with Doyle for awhile, before showing their true colors. The unions that were not always pleased with his first four years were there for him 110% at election time, showing their true colors as well. My hope is that Governor Doyle rewards his friends and punishes his enemies.

Lt. Governor Barbara Lawton was reelected, putting her in strong position for future statewide office.

The Democratic trend was so strong that not only was Sec. of State Doug LaFollette reelected, but virtually unknown Democrat Dawn Marie Sass was elected State Treasurer.

The State Sentate flipped, making the Governor and the Democrats agenda much more possible. Look for Sen. Judy Robson to continue as leader and Sen. Russ Decker to be the new co-chair of the Joint Finance Committee.

The State Assembly had big gains, somewhere in the 7-8 seat range. If the eight seats hold out, the new balance will be 52-47, the closest margin in decades. Ironically, many of those victories were due in part to the Constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage. Look for a more aggressive Democratic minority, led by Rep. Jim Kreuser.

John Gard LOST. And he cried in his concession speech. Waaaaaaaa. Karma. Proof there is karma.

Negatives

Obviously per my previous post, the marriage amendment went down. But overall, a lot of good will happen because of the strong effort of Fair Wisconsin. And Arizona - a state with full public funding of elections - beat back their discriminatory amendment.

Kathleen Falk lost to WMC's $2.5 million spent against her. Oh, and Van Hollen took the AG's spot thanks to WMC. Look for Van Hollen to introduce a limited gay marriage amendment to allow him to marry James Buchen of WMC.


End Results

The Democrats will be in STRONG position to hold the State Senate and win control of the State Assemby in two years. The rightward shift may have finally stopped....right on John Gard's behind.

Fair Wisconsin Winner Despite Vote Tally

There is no one in the state who understands politics that actually thinks the GOP truly believed in the constitutional ban on gay marriage as a public policy manner. It was about politics. It was about driving out conservative voters. It was about winning elections.

And the GOP couldn't have been more wrong.

Sure, YES prevailed. I'm not surprised. The only real winners are lawyers who will bring cases deciding what "substantially similar" actually means.

But what Rep. Mark Gundrum and his ilk didn't gauge was how intense the vote NO voters were, and most importantly, WHERE they were.

College students are about 4-to-1 against the amendment. The legislature had competitive seats in a number of districts with college campuses, including at least six for the State Assembly.

What happened yesterday? Four of those districts went into Democratic hands, and a fifth is only six votes off from another Democratic victory. The margin in some of those races is clearly from the campus vote, which was driven by the Vote NO forces.

Oops. The GOP was too clever by half and LOST.

The only question that remains is whether people like Gundrum have to pay the price from his fellow GOPpers for making them loose more seats than anytime in at least 16 years.


One other interesting aside....Appling, the woman who fronted the Vote YES operation, said on the radio she expected about seven percent more vote than the polls showed, due to voters lying about voting NO to not appear to be bigots. We knew the margin was about five to six points by the most recent polling, but in the end that extra margin was there. Indeed, even some bigots understand (and are comfortable) being bigots.


Finally, to everyone who worked on the Fair Wisconsin effort, congratulations. We may have lost on paper, but we won in so many other ways that bigots will not be able to operate the way they have for too long in Wisconsin. We picked up legislative seats due to Vote NO, we put together the most impressive political organization in memory and we introduced a lot of Wisconsinites to recognizing our families and our values. In every state where these measures were introduced, the public opinion of gays and lesbians has dramatically improved from the exposure. As much as it may be hard to see it now, we really won in more ways than may seem apparent. Again, thank you.

Will Gundrum Lose His Leadership Post Over the Marriage Amendment?

After traveling around the state helping candidates the last few weeks, I have to pose a question. Will State Representative Mark Gundrum, author of the ban on civil unions and marriage amendment, lose his leadership spot over the miscalculation of the constitutional question on the ballot?

There is no question that the GOP was opportunistic in placing the ballot measure on the Fall 2006 ballot. But it has become apparent that this is not the vote generator promised or expected. In fact, regardless of the final outcome of the measure, the intensity has been with progressives and independents against the measure, rather than conservatives for the measure.

Further, in at least seven legislative districts, a key factor in turnout on college campuses will be a NO vote. In that age demographic, it is about 80 percent against to 20 percent for the measure. If the NO voters vote on other issues, does that help Doyle, Falk and legislative candidates rather than the GOP? If so, does Gundrum pay that price?

And in Oshkosh, the GOP assembly candidate's treasurer quit the campaign over the weekend (to front page coverage) over the negative rhetoric by the GOP over the marriage issue. Again, Gundrum's measure cost valuable votes in the final days of the election. I personally had several people mention the issue at the doors while I was helping in Oshkosh this weekend.

So in the end, regardless of how the constitutional amendment fares statewide, several key districts may swing Democratic thanks to the amendment being on the ballot.

Does Gundrum and his ilk pay? Or does the GOP continute down a path of spreading hate and discrimination in order to try to win elections? I can't wait to see...

Sorry, It Has Been A While

Sorry friends. But I have been working hard to elect Democrats this fall, and I have not been doing my duty as a blogger. But I am back.