Peg In Trouble?

Recent signs show Peg Lautenschlager's campaign may be in trouble.

For a while, Peg has campaigned hard thanks to a primary challenge from Kathleen Falk. But recent developments show the push the last six months may not be enough.

First, Peg has a small television buy going promoting her candidacy. But half the commercial also knocks her primary opponent Kathleen Falk. Rule in Politics: If the incumbent is attacking a primary challenger, polling is definitely not going well for that incumbent. It may help her confuse the voters on Falk's qualifications (which include over a decade as an Assistant Attorney General), but it really shows she's not winning with a primary two weeks away.

Secondly, the Sierra Club put out a press release bashing a recent settlement Peg made with the Wisconsin Public Service Commission, for misleading regulators during the permitting of a massive coal-fired power plant near Wausau, Wisconsin. The paultry $21,000 settlement did not please the Sierra Club. Despite Peg's overall good environmental record, a hit like this two weeks out from the primary can't be good.

Meanwhile Kathleen Falk has a strong commercial buy with television, focusing on positives not negatives. And despite some potentially unpopular comments about drunk driving laws and check points, her campaign is continuing to gain endorsements and momentum in the crucial final weeks of the campaign.

In contrast to the two Republican candidates, "You Suck" and "No I Don't Suck", either Democrat may ultimately be stronger than their opponents. My hope is that this seat stays in the Democratic column, to keep strong legal protection for the environment and consumers.

May the strongest Democrat win.

September Primary Observations

As the summer's end nears, I wanted to share some observations about the September partisan primaries. Agree or disagree, here they are:

Attorney General's Race: On the GOP side, Beavis (Bucher) and Butthead (Van Hollen) seem to be letting the primary get to the best/worst of themselves. First they had the "you suck"-fest. I believe the final outcome was they both sucked big time. Then they started to have a fight over their families. Yikes. The final outcome? A bruised primary winner, most likely Van Hollen.

On the Democrat, I like both Peg and Kathleen as people. However, I support Kathleen Falk as our best chance to retain the AG seat. Falk's commercial released today is impressive, as is her campaign bank account and record as a tough campaigner. Lautenschlager's campaign has yet to really take off, with less than three weeks to make a strong move. My guess is that Falk wins the primary and the general election.

Secretary of State's Race: On the Democratic side, there is a two-way race between Doug LaFollette and Scot Ross. LaFollette has held the office for as long as I can remember, but since it is the Secretary of State's office, I really don't remember much about it. Ross is running an energetic challenge, with bold ideas about electoral reform and clean elections for Wisconsin. Can ideas beat a well established name in state politics? We'll see.... (No prediction yet...)

Eighth District Congressional Election: Gard wins the GOP nomination hands down. However, thumbs down on his performance so far as a candidate. His mediocre intellect may have worked in the GOP caucus of the State Assembly, but he will have a much harder road in getting elected to Congress as the class bully.

On the Democratic side, three of the best candidates I've seen running for Congress in a long time are all in one primary. Ouch. I like all three. Each has strengths that would make them the best person to beat John Gard. But if I had to bet, I would have to pick Kagen to win at this point. His well-healed campaign and reputation as a doctor seem to be playing well. I'm so glad I don't have to personally pick someone in this race.

State Legislature: The race most talked about is the Milwaukee area's 7th Senate district, with incumbent Jeff Plale being opposed by Donovan Riley in the Democratic primary. At first, it seemed that Riley was giving Plale a run for his money, but recent developments around Riley potentially voting twice in two different places in one election certainly seems to have let the wind out of his sails and put a 2'x2' hole in the bottom of his boat. My prediction: Plale wins easily.

OK, I put my views out there. It is always a risk to do so, especially so early, but I thought I'd start a discussion. What do you have to say?

I Met Grover Norquist

I’ve spent the last few days at the annual conference for the National Council of State Legislatures, listening to all sorts of topics affecting state governments across the nation. But I have to admit I was especially excited to have a chance to hear right-wing puppeteer Grover Norquist on a panel about taxation.

For those of you who don’t know Norquist, he’s the President of Americans for Tax Reform, a right wing think tank that thinks taxes are worse than Osama Bin Laden. He’s the guy who famously (infamously?) said, “My goal is to cut government in half in twenty-five years," he says, "to get it down to the size where we can drown it in the bathtub.” He also helps coordinate the entire far right on a variety of issues, making him one of their most powerful strategists.

I couldn’t wait to see just how powerful and persuasive he was.

I have to admit some disappointment.

First, he is hardly a likeable guy. He was smug, arrogant and not at all self depreciating. He started out by attacking pretty much every legislator in the room, Democrat and Republican, by saying you can’t trust any politician while he was asking us to sign his pledge to never raise taxes.

Don’t get me wrong, he is formidable. He is very smart. But packaged in that “I got my ass kicked in high school, and now you’ll all pay” perennial geek persona, he isn’t smart enough to know how to really influence people.

He offered far right platitudes about taxes. He kept telling us how powerful he was. But he was not persuasive in his arguments that the tax pledge offered by his organization is really on behalf of our constituents, not the almighty Norquist. Then he proceeded to tell us just how he determines what his pledge actually means. It seems our constituents have proxied their voices to Norquist to tell us what is a violation of the pledge, on a case-by-case basis.

He certainly has the ear of federal politicians. George W. Bush and a majority of Congress have signed a federal pledge not to raise taxes. Instead, they just increase the deficit, and pass any real costs for homeland security, the war and the like on to future generations.

But he only has about a third of state legislators gullible enough to sign his pledge, a dismal failure for such a bright guy (just ask him, he‘s really bright, he'll tell you). When asked about that failure, he only offered a pledge to have sixty percent of legislators on board in ten years.

He explained that Bush the First lost because he signed the pledge, but then raised taxes. Bet you didn’t even know about that pledge then did you? But he takes credit. Norquist claims Bush “ruined an otherwise good presidency”.

He even trashed Governor Arnold for not being right wing-zealot enough.

But in the end, I have to admit disappointment. He had one moment where I thought he had an especially good line. But other than that, legislator after legislator asked questions of him which he really didn’t answer very convincingly.

There are chinks in that right wing warrior’s armor after all. I’m glad. But it was nice to finally meet one of the main architects of all that is wrong with politics, Grover Norquist.

Now I just hope to run into Karl Rove some day.

Can Blogging Do In Wisconsin What It Did to Lieberman in Connecticut?

Almost every pundit agrees. A big part of why Joe Lieberman went down in the Democratic primary in Connecticut was due to a strong effort by progressive bloggers on behalf of Ned Lamont.

The question then, is, can we do that in Wisconsin? Can bloggers and readers of blogs make the difference where their impact is most felt and needed.

I argue yes, and we can do it by helping defeat Republicans in the State Assembly.

Check out the Assembly Democrats website. Work on behalf of the team effort for Democrats in the State Assembly. Pick a candidate or two, or better yet, help the ADCC effort statewide to take as many seats as possible.

Here's my rationale.

- We are fielding Democrats in 85 districts out of 99, more than any election cycle in twenty years. The GOP is challenging only 13 of our incumbents.

- The Democrats have only one member not seeking reelection, the best time to pick up a seat. They have eleven incumbents not running again.

- The overall quality of Democrats running is much better than Republicans. We are fielding former Sheriffs, small business owners, local elected officials, educators and more. They are fielding a "private eye" who lives in his Mom's basement, a perennial loser, and a guy who swears and calls everyone gay on blogs in his district - not exactly the Dream Team.

- Their leader, John Gard, is running for Congress. One of their want-to-be leaders, Mike Huebsch, is attempting to lead their caucus, while other GOPpers are waiting for him to fail so they can be leader.

- The GOP has passed a myriad of knee-jerk, reactionary legislation that makes the far right drool, but middle Wisconsin shake their heads. Think birth control bans, attempts to stop stem cell research, the civil union ban, tax breaks for special interests and bills that pollute our environment.

- And despite having two of their former leaders facing jail and prison time, the GOP in the Assembly killed ethics reform. That issue alone is a political silver bullet in many districts.

So, can progressive bloggers and progressives who read blogs in Wisconsin flex their muscles? Can we at least try?

Check out the Democrats running for the State Assembly.

And better yet, DONATE to help the efforts to defeat the politics of John Gard and Mike Huebsch and Mark Gundrum.

It would be great in November for the headlines to read: Bloggers Deliver State Assembly to Democratic Hands. Will that include you?

Is There a WI GOP Gay African-American Environmentalist Federation?

I was navigating the internets (as Bush would say) and found an interesting GOP "affinity" site.

The Republicans would love you to think they have a big tent. A big tent as long as you're not gay. Or black. Or an environmentalist. Or a working family. Or a jew or muslim. Or a latino. Or a college student. Or a senior on a fixed income. Or a real small business owner.

But if you are a union member, they claim they have a place for you!

Check out the Wisconsin Republican Labor Federation, the webpage for GOP union members.

Ah, right.

Check out their leadership. Not many. Only a few of them will even admit what union they belong to. Then check out the Photo Gallery. Yup, same people. Labor-oriented content? Nope, just a bunch of GOP reactionary talking points. So the connection to labor? Ah...well....um.....someone with a job had to put the site together?

You have to give the GOP credit for trying to fleece the working men and women of Wisconsin. They need to make them think they have a friend in the GOP, even if the GOP is screwing working families on a regular basis. But the lack of content show's what the GOP really thinks about labor. Not much.

Another Business Group Says Vote No on the Amendment

The most recent business group to take a formal stand against the constitutional amendment to ban civil unions and gay marriage is the Greater Madison Chamber of Commerce.

They say the amendment hurts businesses trying to attract employees. From their release:

Laurie Benson, CEO of Inacom Information Systems and a GMCC Board Member, agrees. “As leaders, it is important that we understand the impact of our decisions on our workforce. In order to optimally position our businesses and our state for a thriving economy, we must remove any barriers that could negatively impact our ability to attract and retain exceptional employees in Wisconsin,” said Benson.

The GMCC joins Downtown Madison, Inc. in the business community's opposition to the amendment.

Want to help get the word about the harmful effects of the amendment? Give to Fair Wisconsin.

Green Trying to Buy His Way Away From Tom Delay

Check this out. So much for the "ethical" Mark Green. Guess he really did learn a lot from Tom Delay.

From a Doyle release.

Get ready for an avalanche of negative attack ads against Governor Jim Doyle.

This Thursday, Mark Green and his special interest pals are holding a golf outing in Kohler to raise buckets of cash for the Republican Governors Association.

$25,000 for a foursome to play a round of golf, $10,000 for two, or $2,500 for what must be one heck of a barbeque.

Somewhere in the neighborhood of $500,000 - $750,000 raised when all is said and done …

Wisconsin special interest money, raised at a Wisconsin event, by the Republican Governors Association? Yeah, you can bet it’ll be on the Wisconsin airwaves this fall, in the form of more negative attack ads against Governor Doyle.

All this after Green’s $10,000 dollar a plate fund raiser with George W. Bush.

And the dirty money he took from disgraced Majority Leader Tom DeLay.

And the dirty $1.3 million he transferred from his federal to his state campaign account that the Wisconsin Democracy Campaign says was “wrong,” and that the State Elections Board is going to take up at the end of this month [Source: “The Law is the Law, by Mike McCabe; blog posting on the Wisconsin Democracy Campaign website; http://www.wisdc.org/blog/bigmoneyblog.html; 7/21/06].

Does the GOP really think the public will buy (pun intended) their spin about Green's ethics?

Check Out Assembly Democrats New Website

The Assembly Democrats have a new website up, and it is worth taking a look at.

It previews all the Democrats running for the State Assembly, as well as a blog, a calendar and the all important spot to contribute.

Given the totally unproductive past session where the Republicans tried to allow pharmacists to refuse to fill your prescriptions, stem cell and birth control bans, tax breaks for special interests and the death blow of ethics reform in Wisconsin, my guess is that the GOP is in big, big trouble.

Democrats are running in 85 districts, more than any other election in the last twenty years.

So check it out. And please contribute if you can.